Egypt struggles against population 'catastrophe'

埃及艰难应对人口“灾难”

Ali Abdelaziz sees children as a "gift from God", so much so that he has 10 of his own, even as Egypt's government struggles to stem a "catastrophic" population boom.Abdelaziz works in the capital as a doorman, but his children stay in a village with their mother in the southern province of Minya where life is cheaper.

据肯尼亚《民族日报》网站的消息：阿里·阿卜杜勒阿齐兹视孩子为“上帝”的礼物，以至于他拥有10个孩子，尽管埃及政府努力在遏制一场“灾难性”的人口增长危机。阿卜杜勒阿齐兹在首都开罗从事门卫的工作，但他的妻儿却呆在明亚南部省份的一座村落里，那里的生活相对更为廉价。

Egypt's overpopulation is adding pressure on the economy, already reeling from the political and security turmoil since the 2011 uprising that toppled former president Hosni Mubarak.With 96 million inhabitants — and 9.4 million expatriates — the Arab world's most populous country adds 1.6 million people every year to its population. At the current rate, Egypt's population will reach 119 million in 2030, according to a May report by the United Nations Population Fund.With 95 percent of Egypt's land uninhabitable desert, the population is concentrated around the narrow Nile valley and Nile Delta, with smaller numbers along the Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts.

自2011年前总统胡斯尼·穆巴拉克被赶下台的动乱上演以来，埃及国内经济因政治动荡和安全危机而蹒跚前进，人口过剩正加大埃及经济面临的压力。埃及拥有9600万人口和940万侨民，是阿拉伯世界人口最多的国家，而且每年还要新增160万人口。据联合国人口基金会的报告，按照当前的增长速度，埃及人口将在2030年达到1亿1900万。埃及95%的土地是不适合居住的沙漠，人口集中在狭窄的尼罗河河谷和尼罗河三角洲，也有较少人口分布在地中海沿岸和红海沿岸。

A fall in mortality rates in the early 1970s further boosted the population growth. In Cairo, a megalopolis of nearly 20 million inhabitants, the population density is around 50,000 inhabitants per square kilometre, or nearly 10 times that of London. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has said population growth is "a challenge as critical as that of terrorism".The government launched a new family planning campaign this year under the slogan "two are enough", to try to contain the phenomenon. 

20世纪70年代初期，埃及人口死亡率的下降进一步促进了人口增长。开罗是一个拥有近2000万居民的城市, 人口密度约为每平方千米5万居民, 将近是伦敦的10倍。埃及总统阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西(Abdel Fattah al Sisi)表示, 人口增长是“和恐怖主义同样严重的挑战”。 为遏制这一现象，埃及政府今年发起了一场新的计划生育运动, 宣传口号是 "生两个就够了"。

"Children are protection: they care for their parents when they grow older," said Abdelaziz, the doorman, unconvinced of the campaign.But Hayam Mohamed, a mother of three, does not want more children and uses a government family planning centre in Umm Khenan village of Giza province."I don't want my children to feel deprived," Mohamed, 32, said after receiving her contraception pills, free of charge, from the centre's doctor, like many others in her village."Education is expensive, and life has become difficult with the rising prices."Fardous Hamed, a doctor at the centre, told AFP that the number of people seeking its services has risen with the latest round of price increases since authorities floated the pound in November 2016. "Awareness grew among people here," said Hamed. 

门卫阿卜杜勒阿齐兹对此项运动持怀疑态度。他声称：“孩子是保障: 他们会照顾年老的父母。”不过，作为三个孩子的母亲，哈耶姆·穆罕默德却不想再要更多孩子，并已在吉萨省Khenan村的一所政府计划生育中心享受服务。32岁的哈耶姆·穆罕默德曾和村里其他人收到该中心医生免费发放的避孕药。她说道：“我不想让我的孩子感到贫困。教育是昂贵的, 生活也在随着物价的上涨而变得举步维艰。”该计划生育中心的医生法都斯·哈迈德向法新社透露, 自埃及当局于2016年11月宣布埃及镑实现自由浮动以来, 前来寻求服务的人数随着最新一轮的物价飞涨而有所上升。他还说:“这里人们的觉悟有所提升。” 

Following the currency flotation, the pound lost more than half its value and inflation jumped to 33 percent in September. "If I give birth to five or six children, I won't even be able to provide them food," said Mohamed. 

自埃及货币实现自由浮动以来，埃及镑贬值了50%以上，埃及国内通胀率在9月份跃升至33%。哈耶姆·穆罕默德说道：“如果我生了5、6个孩子，我甚至不能给他们提供食物。”

Abu Bakr el-Gendy, the head of Egypt's state statistics bureau which carried out the latest census, described the current rate of population growth as a "catastrophe".He said the annual rate accelerated between 2005 and 2014, before stabilising in 2016 at around 2.6 percent.The rate must be at least three times lower than economic growth for people's living standards not to deteriorate, according to Gendy. But "the more poverty increases, the more the reproduction rate increases because parents consider children as a source of income," with many children joining the labour market at an early age, he said. 

埃及国家统计局对国内展开了一场最新的人口普查。埃及国家统计局局长阿布·巴克尔·詹迪（Abu Bakr el-Gendy）将埃及国内当前的人口增长率描述是一场“灾难”。他表示，埃及人口年增长率在2005年--2014年出现了加速状态，在2016年稳定在约2.6%的水平。他认为，人口增长率至少比经济增长率低三倍，国民的生活水准才不会出现恶化状况。不过，他还表示，“贫困程度越高，生育率也会越高，因为家长认为孩子是收入的一个来源”，许多孩子在很小的时候就会进入劳动力市场。

Magued Osman, the head of Baseera, a private public opinion research centre, said Egypt's population growth amounts to "collective suicide". It is the result of "politicians neglecting the issue since the middle of the previous decade", said Mona Abu el-Ghar, an obstetrics and gynaecology professor at Cairo University. "The problem needs to be taken more seriously with constant media campaigns on radio and television to raise awareness on the importance of family planning," said Abu el-Ghar. These campaigns, she said, need to be sponsored by the authorities as well as by the Al-Azhar institution, Egypt's top Islamic authority.

埃及独立民调机构Baseera的负责人马吉德·奥斯曼（Magued Osman）声称，埃及的人口增长等同于“集体自杀”。开罗大学妇产科教授莫娜·阿布·阿尔加尔（Mona Abu el-Ghar）认为，这是“政客们在以往10年中对此熟视无睹”的结果。她说：“这个问题需要更加重视，要通过电台和电视持续不断的宣传来提高公众对计划生育重要性的认识。”她还指出，这些活动需要得到政府当局以及埃及伊斯兰教最高权威机构爱资哈尔（Al-Azhar）的支持。（译：折翼的蝴蝶/奔跑者，转自“全球主义者”公众号）